The price action of Cardano in the future (ada to usd) hinges on a number of factors. Current data and market conditions are indicating upside potential. Technically, in 2024, Cardano’s Hydra scaling solution will be involved in the final testing, with the objective to take the network throughput from 257 transactions per second (TPS) to 1,000 TPS and reduce the cost per transaction to $0.15 (40% less than in 2023). This update has attracted developers to increase the number of decentralized applications (DApps) from 3,400 in 2023 to 5,200 in June 2024, driving the total on-chain locked value (TVL) to exceed 1.2 billion US dollars, with an annual growth rate of 300%. Among them, the AUM of lending protocol Liqwid soared from 20 million US dollars to 150 million US dollars within half a year, and the daily average lending transaction volume increased by 700%, which further consolidated the ecological activity.
Institutional capital inflows provide ada to usd exchange rate support. Cardano funds experienced a net inflow of $87 million during the second quarter of 2024, representing 18% of total altcoin funds’ inflows, well ahead of Solana (12%) and Polkadot (9%), according to a report from crypto asset management company CoinShares. Meanwhile, Swiss bank UBP launched the Cardano staking service in May 2024 with a 5.2% annualized yield, which pushed the ADA staking rate from 68% to 74%, and the total locked quantity exceeded 32 billion (90% of the total supply). According to Bloomberg data, open interest in ADA futures rose to $1.4 billion in July 2024, a 220% increase from the beginning of the year. 80% of them were long positions, indicating a very bullish market sentiment.
Regulatory compliance and global cooperation enhance longer-term confidence. Cardano was included in the list of “Approved Crypto Assets” by the UK Financial Conduct Authority (FCA) in April 2024, with the local exchanges permitted to directly list the ADA/GBP trading pair. The trading volume during its first week exceeded 230 million pounds, accounting for 7% of the UK crypto market. In addition, the Digital identity initiative, a collaboration between the Cardano Foundation and the government of Brazil, went live in August 2024, covering 12 million citizens. With over 500,000 on-chain verification requests per day and a system processing latency of less than 0.3 seconds, the rate of ADA adoption in South America has skyrocketed from 6% to 15%. Among the compliant exchanges globally, ADA’s fiat currency trading pairs increased from 45 in 2023 to 78 in 2024, and liquidity depth achieved an average of 980 million US dollars per day, a 130% increase year on year.
Market cycles and on-chain metrics suggest upside potential. According to data presented by cryptocurrency analytics website CryptoQuant, ADA’s MVRV-Z Score (Market capitalization/Realized Value Offset Index) in June 2024 stood at 1.2, lower than the historical risk level of 2.5, indicating the price is still undervalued. Meanwhile, the exchange reserves dropped to 2.5 billion ADA (8% of circulating supply), the lowest level since 2021. The ratio of addresses that held the currency for more than one year was 71%, with an average cost of $0.45, which is lower than the current ada to usd price ($0.92), and the floating profit rate for long-term holders was 104%. According to Glassnode’s prediction, if Bitcoin breaks through $100,000 in 2025, ADA, with a 0.85 correlation coefficient with BTC, can also rise to $2.5-$3 simultaneously, with a growth of more than 170% from the current price.
in summary, technological iteration, institutional share growth, compliance breakthrough and cyclical resonance provide ada to usd exchange rate multi-dimensional support. While the short-term volatility (30-day annualized) remains high at 65%, both on-chain development activity index (1,200 code submissions on average per day) and ecosystem growth pace (DApp monthly active users exceeding 4 million) rank top three in the industry. Market research firm Arcane Research predicts that ADA’s market capitalization will exceed 50 billion US dollars by the end of 2025, which is twice the current level, and the annualized rate of return can reach 85%-120%.